000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230232
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE RAIN BANDS
HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE
VISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY. 
THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THAT 10-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR HAS REDEVELOPED AND IS INHIBITING THE VENTILATION OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBSEQUENT DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AN EARLIER CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
A FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND REFLECTED IN THE MODELS IS NOT AS ROBUST AS
WAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT STILL INDICATING
SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
 
CELIA IS ON A WESTWARD HEADING AT 275/9 KT...WITHIN THE DEEP
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 11.9N 107.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N 108.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 12.3N 111.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 12.7N 113.4W    90 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 13.3N 115.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 125.6W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA