000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222034 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CELIA HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A CDO TO A BANDING PATTERN TODAY. OVERALL...THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO HAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SOLID. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS AS TO WHY THE CYCLONE SHOULD NOT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN. EASTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INHIBITING AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY..THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IT CONTINUES TO SHOW CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. CELIA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/8 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCN CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN A FEW DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE IN THAT MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 11.8N 106.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 11.9N 107.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 12.1N 109.8W 95 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 12.4N 112.1W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 114.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 14.4N 118.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 122.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN