000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221441 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CDO THAT HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL AN EYE THAT IS STILL A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN T5.0 AND T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE ABATING. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND PREDICTS CELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN 3-4 DAYS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE WEAKENING. CELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS. THIS IS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF...WHICH WEAKENS THE RIDGE MORE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OF CELIA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 11.6N 105.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 11.7N 106.7W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 11.8N 108.6W 105 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 12.1N 110.7W 105 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 12.5N 113.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 13.7N 117.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN