000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220834 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010 CELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS TIME. AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000 UTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB....USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...REMAIN AT 5.0... CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST OUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED STATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/7. THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEREFORE CONTINUE IT MAINLY WESTWARD TREK. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...BY DAY 4...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE TRACK MODELS AND ALSO BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRACK THAT APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W 100 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W 105 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W 105 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W 100 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH