000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220252 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010 BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT IMAGES AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E AQUA-1 MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS NEW DEEP CONVECTION FORMING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE EYE...WHICH APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FINALLY BACKING OFF. THE MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO DEPICTED A WELL DEVELOPED PRIMARY BAND RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE EYEWALL IS IN FACT REFORMING. SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AS WELL...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL FURTHER DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. AFTERWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES BY DAY 3...AS CELIA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVES WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER CELIA IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 11.7N 103.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W 100 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W 100 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART