000
WTPZ44 KNHC 212034
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE 1200 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS 
SOME TILT TO THE HURRICANE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  A HINT OF AN EYE HAS
BEEN SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT HAS NOT BECOME APPARENT
IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
THE BASIS FOR RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT.

THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE HURRICANE...INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND PEAKS CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
2-3 DAYS.  THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN 
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING...
HOWEVER IT TAKES THE HURRICANE INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AS ITS TRACK IS WELL NORTH 
AND EAST OF THE NHC FORECAST.
 
THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION.  THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST OR
270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
FROM THIS MORNING.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 11.6N 103.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N 104.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 11.5N 105.8W    90 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 11.5N 107.5W    95 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 11.8N 109.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 113.4W    95 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN