000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211454
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
 
A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION OF CELIA. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT.
 
IT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
BEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO
AROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK
ABOUT 10 KT LOWER.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS AT OR ABOVE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE
MORE LATITUDE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 11.8N 102.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 11.7N 104.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 106.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 12.1N 108.4W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 112.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN