000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210832
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
 
ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CELIA HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIAL EYEWALL.   DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 70 KT.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES
IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CELIA AND INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW
OVER THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT ABOVE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG AT AN INCREASED
FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER SOME SMOOTHING AND USING CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED VALUE...THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
275/8.  A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION OF
CELIA FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  AFTERWARDS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE U.S. WEST COAST IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.  THIS
WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...AND MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY REVISED INTIAL MOTION. 
THIS IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT
EXCLUDES THE FORECAST FROM THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 11.8N 102.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 11.9N 103.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 12.0N 104.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 12.1N 106.4W    85 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 12.3N 108.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 111.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 119.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH