000
WTPZ44 KNHC 202038
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS INTENSIFIED.  A SSMIS
PASS FROM 1450 UTC SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND
AN EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ALSO...
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
HAVE BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED SINCE THIS MORNING.  BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENT THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING CELIA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  A BROAD PEAK IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SOME
WEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
COOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25
KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ONLY A 2 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THAT PERIOD.
 
THE CENTER OF CELIA MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONG TERM INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 260/6.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CELIA WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT WAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFS...WHICH AGAIN
APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.
 
THE 34-KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE EXPANDED
BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1640 UTC.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 11.6N 100.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 11.4N 101.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 11.4N 102.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N 103.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 11.6N 105.1W   100 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 108.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 13.5N 112.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 116.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN