000 WTPZ44 KNHC 201433 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010 DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CELIA DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AROUND 3.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A EYE BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THE CDO...BUT BOTH THE SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS ANALYZE ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER CELIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF NEAR 100 KT IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. SOME WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAY 5...AS CELIA WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFDN SHOWS CELIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/07. CELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALONG 125W BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 11.9N 100.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.7N 101.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 11.6N 102.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 11.7N 103.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 11.8N 104.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 12.3N 107.8W 95 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 13.5N 111.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN