000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200916 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010 CORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT TO 55 KT ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 55 KT. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER CELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF CELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD RESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A BIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED... POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO PREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60 HOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... INDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES FASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.0N 99.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W 95 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN