000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP
WKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF
T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
CELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...
COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
 
AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 12.5N  97.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N  98.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.3N  99.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN