000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140233
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

PATRICIA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE CANNOT BE
ASSIGNED A DATA T-NUMBER VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  HOWEVER A SHIP
WITH CALL SIGN C6FV9 REPORTED 32-KT WINDS ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  PATRICIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AIR AND OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY...OR LESS.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT IS
OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 325/5.
AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATRICIA OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
UNTIL LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THAT AREA ARE ALSO MAINTAINED AT THIS
TIME.  HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 22.6N 109.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.9N 109.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N 111.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE