000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009 PATRICIA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS RAGGED AND ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND NO OUTER BANDING IS PRESENT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS POOR IN ALL DIRECTIONS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT. THE STORM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OF DUE NORTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 015/6. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TO LIFT OUT...WITH AN EAST TO WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF PATRICIA DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR. THESE DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF. THAT MODEL FORECASTS PATRICIA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH A WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR. PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATER...SO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT AT THIS TIME....AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWS VERY DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE STORM. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASING PROBLEM WHEN PATRICIA TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL HOLDS ON TO IT FOR FIVE DAYS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE MODELS...WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING INDICATED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECAY TO DISSIPATION OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 96 HR. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER STORM AND REMAINS AN OUTLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 21.4N 109.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 21.9N 109.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 110.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 22.4N 111.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 22.5N 113.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN