000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009 VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINETEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IS A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WHICH BARELY MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/05. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER A WEAKER...AND MORE SHALLOW...SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.3N 108.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 109.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN