000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011431
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
 
CONVECTION WITH KEVIN HAS BEEN WANING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
ONLY TWO SMALL BANDS REMAINING. IN ADDITION...A TRMM PASS NEAR
0844Z SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WITH TWO POSSIBLE
CENTERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.  A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY DUE
TO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND
MARGINAL SSTS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
WEAKENING OF KEVIN...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3. THE DEPRESSION IS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE
FOR 24-36 HOURS UNTIL WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 
THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD FORCE A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KEVIN UNTIL FINAL DISSIPATION.  THE
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE RIDGING...AND THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 18.0N 121.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N 121.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.6N 121.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.7N 121.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 18.6N 122.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE