000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010844
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
 
KEVIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOST
RECENT ONE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  A
0454 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BAND OF 25-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN HAS BEEN ISOLATED
FROM ITS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOURCE OF MOISTURE...AND INFRARED
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN KEVIN...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE STEERING FLOW AROUND KEVIN HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO A NEARBY MID-
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/4.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KEVIN SHOULD CEASE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IN A
DAY OR TWO AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...STILL MOVING
VERY SLOWLY.  LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BY 24-48 HOURS
WITH KEVIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 18.0N 121.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.4N 121.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N 121.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 121.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG