000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010239
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
 
KEVIN IS MOSTLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF AN INCREASINGLY BROAD CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. AS BEFORE...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO MAINTAIN KEVIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY
MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT KEVIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
010/04. THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING REGIME IN BETWEEN A WEAK ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A RATHER SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN COULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST BY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL
RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO CAPTURE AN
INITIALLY MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 17.6N 121.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 121.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.6N 121.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.7N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN