000
WTPZ44 KNHC 312037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
 
KEVIN IS FADING FAST. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. SUBSEQUENTLY...IF THIS
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED
THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT WITHIN A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 17.2N 121.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.7N 121.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.1N 120.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N 120.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 120.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.6N 120.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH