000
WTPZ44 KNHC 311434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
 
KEVIN IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE
CIRCULATION.  UNLESS THERE IS A RESURGENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...KEVIN WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/05.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LIGHT AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFNI AND
CANADIAN MODELS DRAW KEVIN OR ITS REMNANTS EASTWARD BEHIND
JIMENA...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN