000
WTPZ44 KNHC 301444
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF KEVIN...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE PRIMARY
BAND HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT KEVIN WILL DISSIPATE IN
96 HOURS OR LESS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/6...WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS...KEVIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRODUCED BY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREES WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF
THE NOGAPS/GFS/GFDL/UKMET AND ECMWF...UPON WHICH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 14.8N 121.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.4N 121.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N 120.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 17.6N 119.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W    40 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W    35 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH