000
WTPZ44 KNHC 121439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
800 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...WHICH IS MAINTAINING JUST ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IT
FROM BEING CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DOES THE GFDL.  IN THE CASE OF SHIPS THE
DRIVING PREDICTOR IS THE SST POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS IN FACT NO
LESS FAVORABLE NOW THAN IT WILL BE IN FIVE DAYS...SO I AM
SKEPTICAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AID ICON.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK BECOMES
LESS CLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  OF COURSE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH OR DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL THESE INFLUENCES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN DIRECTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET
AND HWRF.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO ITS
EAST...AND CONSEQUENTLY INDICATE A MUCH SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN
TO THE NORTH.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 14.6N 132.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 134.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N 136.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 13.5N 138.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 13.2N 139.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 13.0N 142.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 145.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 13.0N 148.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN