000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120836
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION IS HANGING ON AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME...WITH A FEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
THE AREA HAS RELAXED...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT IN A VERY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO
SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON
THIS PREMISE...BUT...GIVEN THE LOWLY CURRENT STATE OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.
 
SATELLITE FIXES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST
MOTION...ABOUT 265/11.  A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST-ORIENTED
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...ALONG WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SEEM TO
BE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS FOR A MAINTENANCE OF A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4-5.
THE NHC TRACK IS JUST A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE ONE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 14.7N 131.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 132.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 134.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.1N 136.4W    25 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 13.7N 138.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 144.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 13.0N 147.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH