000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120250
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION THIS
EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WERE INTERMITTENT DURING THE
DAY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY
DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. IT APPEARS
THAT DRY AIR AND NOT SHEAR IS WHAT HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE
CYCLONE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL BRING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTHEN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
STRENGTHENING THE DEPRESSION TO AROUND 50 KT IN 4-5 DAYS. DESPITE
THE RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PREDICT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT
REDEVELOP TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 265/11. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY TURNS
THE DEPRESSION WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N 130.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 131.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.7N 133.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.4N 135.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.1N 137.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 13.6N 140.7W    35 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 13.5N 144.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 147.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN