000
WTPZ44 KNHC 112041
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH THE CENTER OCCASIONALLY COVERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM PUFFS OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND
DRY AIR.  THIS COULD BE RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER.  THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD PATH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MODELS RESPONSE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE LARGE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
SOCORRO ISLAND...AND A PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ NEAR 8N123W.  THE
NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET STILL
FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT INTERACTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
 
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD...IN THEORY...BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE CURRENT POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 15.1N 128.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 130.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 132.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.9N 134.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.7N 136.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 140.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 14.0N 144.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN