000
WTPZ44 KNHC 111434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E HAS AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS
FORECAST A DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION TO
DEVELOP...THUS POSSIBLY CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
INTERACT.  SINCE THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION WILL CALL FOR A
WESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR AND A RESULTING LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAK...WITH ONLY THE HWRF
CURRENTLY CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KT.  BASED
ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS...IT COULD ABSORB TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AS
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 15.1N 127.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 15.1N 128.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 15.1N 130.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 134.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.0N 138.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN