000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110834
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THE
SYSTEM BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A
FEW TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS BUT THOSE APPEARED TO BE
RAIN-CONTAMINATED.  A MORE RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS
OF 30 KT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW
THIS TROUGH WEAKENING AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48-72 HOURS.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE
SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION
AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...BUT IS BELOW THE SHIPS AND LGEM
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL...THAT HAS THE MOST
ROBUST INITIALIZATION OF NINE-E...CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. 
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE BEEN
OUR MOST RELIABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT...ABOUT THE SAME AS
BEFORE.  THE COMBINATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...WHICH IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS
BEEN NUDGED JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE SOUTH.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 15.1N 126.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.1N 127.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.1N 129.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 131.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 133.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 137.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH