000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100837
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE
CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL AND 
AMORPHOUS MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A SHARP WESTERN EDGE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO...2.0 AND 2.5 FROM
SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 30 KT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7...A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. 
THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC.  MODEL GUIDANCE...TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
ABOUT 48 HOURS...SHOWS THIS FEATURE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A COURSE JUST NORTH OF
DUE WEST.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAVORS A
CONTINUED WESTERLY OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS...
SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF...SUGGEST A POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING CLOSE TO 140W.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES LITTLE WEIGHT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE
TIME BEING AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS INDICATE MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING THE CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE RESULTING SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
125W.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE TO NO
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE
SHORT-TERM.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD AND DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR AXIS IN THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...ALLOWING A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION. 
HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK AROUND THIS TIME...AND THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHEAR MAY AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 14.9N 122.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 125.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 126.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 16.4N 128.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 132.3W    45 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 136.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH