000
WTPZ44 KNHC 160833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND I AM NOT SURE
IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT. THE SYSTEM RESEMBLES A
WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
OF A CIRCULATION ON MICROWAVE DATA EITHER. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING
CONTINUITY AND THE FACT THAT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...I
WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS CARLOS IMMEDIATELY AND BASICALLY
DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE
INCREASING SHEAR...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TOO.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. I DO NOT THINK THAT MODELS ARE VERY USEFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHALLOW STRUCTURE OF CARLOS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 10.1N 133.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 10.1N 135.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 10.3N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 10.3N 140.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 10.3N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 10.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA