000
WTPZ44 KNHC 151434
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CARLOS HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN
GEOSTATIONARY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC
WERE 4.0. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/05...WITH LESS CERTAINTY
NOW THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SHORT TERM...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
ANALYSIS. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OCEAN CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY
...CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND MAY BE LOWERED FURTHER IN THE NEXT
ADVISORY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL. ACCORDINGLY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...OTHER THAN THE
GFDL...INDICATES THAT CARLOS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE
PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH ICON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 10.3N 129.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 10.5N 130.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 10.9N 132.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.3N 134.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 11.6N 136.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 142.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 147.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 12.0N 153.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN