000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142036 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FREE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. ENHANCE BD INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE EYEWALL CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS RECENT CLOUD PATTERN DEVELOPMENT...AND AN INCREASING ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE T-NUMBER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. CARLOS REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET. THE HWRF...GFDL... AND UKMET ARE STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE STILL ON THE NORTH SIDE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.0N 128.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 10.3N 129.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 10.7N 130.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 11.1N 132.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 12.0N 140.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 152.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN