000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141502 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009 INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS SHOW THAT CARLOS CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE...10 N MI WIDE OR LESS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC...AND RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE EXCEEDED 5.0 AS THE EYE GETS BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION. CARLOS IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET. ON ONE SIDE ARE THE HWRF... GFDL...AND UKMET...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION CLOSER TO 10-11N. ON THE OTHER SIDE ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH CALL FOR CARLOS TO REACH 15-16N BY 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL. CARLOS IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CARLOS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CARLOS TO PEAK AT HIGHER THAN ABOUT 85 KT. THE FIRST PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR CARLOS TO REACH 85 KT IN 12 HR...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GFS...ECWMF..AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO LIE ALONG 10-11N...WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER CARLOS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALL FOR THE AXIS TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR AFTER 24-36 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 10.0N 127.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 10.2N 128.7W 85 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 10.9N 131.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 11.2N 133.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 12.0N 138.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 144.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 150.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN