000
WTPZ44 KNHC 141007
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
300 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
 
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SMALL
EYE...AND THEREFORE CARLOS IS UPGRADED ONCE AGAIN TO A HURRICANE. 
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.  WE HAVE MODIFIED THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED
ON THE REVISED INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE.  HOWEVER...AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF CARLOS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1000Z  9.7N 127.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z  9.8N 128.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH