000
WTPZ44 KNHC 140248
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

DESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF CARLOS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP
AROUND THE CENTER.  THE BANDED EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT WAS SEEN 
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY TODAY HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A NEW BURST OF
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
INDICATES THAT THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE REMAINS.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
AND ADT ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KT. 

IT APPEARS THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED AND CARLOS
IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KT.  THERE IS CERTAINLY MORE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE THIS EVENING.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF
ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.  THE NHC TRACK FOLLOWS THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
THAT CARLOS WILL BE APPROACHING AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN 24-36 HOURS.  SINCE CARLOS IS SO SMALL...IT
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING DUE TO THE 
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z  9.7N 127.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z  9.7N 128.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z  9.9N 130.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 10.2N 132.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 10.5N 134.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 11.3N 138.8W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 11.5N 145.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 11.5N 152.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN