000
WTPZ44 KNHC 130244
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009
 
THE MYSTERIOUS WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND ONLY A SMALL AREA
OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOS.  OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND
SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  DESPITE
THE RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY A VERY RECENT 0150 UTC
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.
PERHAPS THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT CARLOS IS TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE.
 
DESPITE THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...
THE FORECAST PATH KEEPS CARLOS OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE
GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY GUIDANCE THAT PREDICTS
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING.  THE HWRF HAS BACKED-OFF ON ITS
EARLIER FORECAST OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AND NOW CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE MAINTAIN CARLOS AS A 45 TO 55 KT TROPICAL
STORM THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD.  SINCE THE OVERALL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME MODEST RESTRENGTHENING...BUT A LITTLE 
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 72 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THAN THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON
A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THAT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 10.2N 123.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 10.2N 124.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 10.4N 126.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 10.6N 129.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 10.9N 131.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 11.7N 135.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 12.5N 140.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 12.5N 145.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN