000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121457 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009 INFRARED IMAGERY OF HURRICANE CARLOS DISPLAYS A MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.5...BUT ADT AND AMSU SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CYCLONE. BASED UPON THE CONTINUING DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD SIGNATURE SINCE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE MODERATELY UNCERTAIN. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CARLOS HAS OBSCURED ITS CENTER OVERNIGHT AND THE MICROWAVE SENSORS ABOARD THE POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITES HAVE RATHER ADROITLY MANAGED TO HAVE MISSED SEEING THE HURRICANE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE IS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOS. THE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SHOULD KEEP CARLOS ON A NEARLY DUE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS MODEL TO THE NORTH. THIS MODEL MAY BE RESPONDING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BECAUSE OF ITS LARGER REPRESENTAION OF THE VORTEX. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESS WEIGHT ON NOGAPS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BROADER...LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THIS...CARLOS HAS A LARGE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND NONE NOW BRING CARLOS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...THE SSTS COOL...AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO VERTICAL SHEAR REACHING CARLOS BY DAY FIVE...IN CONTRAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY THREE. AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 10.4N 121.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 10.5N 122.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 10.7N 125.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 10.9N 127.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 11.2N 129.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 138.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 142.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN