000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120236
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING.  A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND BRIEFLY BECAME QUITE DISTINCT JUST AFTER 0000 UTC. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS BECOME OBSCURED ONCE AGAIN.  THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 WHICH
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT. 

CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED.  THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72
HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
AND APPROACH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. 

CARLOS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE
PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 10.5N 119.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W   105 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W   105 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W   100 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN