000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112040 TCDEP4 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009 SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER TODAY GAVE US THE INDICATION THAT AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING AND FINALLY A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS EYE IS BEING WRAPPED BY TWO COIL-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE INTERMITTENTLY. HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGES IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBER IS 4.0. SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...CARLOS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 70-KNOT HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE PATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WESTWARD PATH ABOUT 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS NOT EXCEPTED TO CHANGE MUCH. THEREFORE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUN WITH MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING CARLOS ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS...PERHAPS VARYING IN FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT BY MUCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 10.5N 117.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA