000 WTPZ44 KNHC 111437 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009 THE BANDING FEATURES PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ARE CURRENTLY LESS DISTINCT BUT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DURING THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1200 UTC...THE PATTERN WAS A LITTLE RAGGED AND THE T-NUMBER CAME DOWN TO 3.0. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IN FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY...JUST RECEIVED...SHOWS THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF CARLOS UNTIL IT INCREASES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THEN...THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER. THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND CARLOS SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN TWO OR THREE DAYS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF KEEP CARLOS AS A 80 TO 90 KT HURRICANE. CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG GLOBAL MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BEYOND 3 DAYS. AN OVERALL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS STILL THE MOST FAVORITE MODEL SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.4N 116.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W 70 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA