000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110242
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS EVENING.  BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE MAY BE
DEVELOPING.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISH...BUT IT IS
A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUILD A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH 
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

CARLOS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS CARLOS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS A MORE MODEST RATE OF
STRENGTHENING.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD HALT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 10.5N 115.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 10.8N 116.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 11.1N 119.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 11.4N 121.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 11.6N 123.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 12.0N 128.2W    80 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 13.0N 137.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN