000
WTPZ44 KNHC 102035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009
 
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY.  THE CYCLONE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...AND ENOUGH BANDING GENERALLY
TO GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...AGAIN FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE.  A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BLANCA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF CARLOS...BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...CARLOS IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE AND REMAIN ON A TRACK JUST NORTH
OF WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES
PRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN DEFERENCE TO THE
ECMWF...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS.   

CARLOS IS WELL ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SMALL...OVER VERY WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A DECENT
CANDIDATE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T OCCUR
OFTEN IN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORMS.  THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE ESTIMATES
A 35% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF
THE TIGHTLY PACKED DSHP/LGEM/HWFI/GHMI ENSEMBLE.  TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS...WHICH MIGHT ACT TO SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 10.3N 113.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN