000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202026 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9 KT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH WEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL DISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN HANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS EFFECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202026 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9 KT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH WEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL DISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN HANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS EFFECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN