000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191439 TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED OVERNIGHT WITH A LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE. AN AQUA PASS AT 1030 UTC SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME INDICATION FROM THE LOW CLOUD LINES THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION COULD BE A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT. HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH LONGER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LONGER TRACK OVER WARMER WATER AND LESS SHEAR THAN FORECAST. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE LATER TODAY AS SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE WEAKENING COULD BE A LOT FASTER TOMORROW AS SSTS DROP BELOW 24C AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIAGNOSING TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE NEAR-TERM REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...290/10... AND THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE MOVING A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN RECENTLY SEEN. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET REMAIN THE NORTH/SOUTH OUTLIERS.. THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK HAS WORKED OUT BETTER AS OF LATE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS A LEFTWARD TURN IS FORESEEN DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SHALLOW NATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.7N 130.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 133.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.9N 134.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191439 TCDEP4 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED OVERNIGHT WITH A LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE. AN AQUA PASS AT 1030 UTC SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME INDICATION FROM THE LOW CLOUD LINES THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION COULD BE A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT. HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH LONGER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LONGER TRACK OVER WARMER WATER AND LESS SHEAR THAN FORECAST. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE LATER TODAY AS SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE WEAKENING COULD BE A LOT FASTER TOMORROW AS SSTS DROP BELOW 24C AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIAGNOSING TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE NEAR-TERM REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...290/10... AND THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE MOVING A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN RECENTLY SEEN. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET REMAIN THE NORTH/SOUTH OUTLIERS.. THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK HAS WORKED OUT BETTER AS OF LATE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS A LEFTWARD TURN IS FORESEEN DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SHALLOW NATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.7N 130.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 133.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.9N 134.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB