000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Julia's center has raced across Nicaragua all day and is just about ready to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters. Low-topped convection continues near the center, and the circulation remains well defined in visible satellite imagery, radar data from Managua, and surface observations from Nicaragua. Some deeper convection continues to form in a band over eastern Nicaragua and over the adjacent Pacific waters. Based on a typical decay rate of a tropical cyclone's winds over land, the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt. Even though Julia has made it across Nicaragua intact as a tropical cyclone, the interaction with land has still taken a toll. Moderate deep-layer shear out of the east-northeast has also begun to affect the cyclone, and forecast wind fields from the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show the circulation shrinking over the next day or so. Using these models as the basis for the intensity forecast, continued weakening is anticipated, and Julia is likely to fall below tropical storm strength in 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone is then expected to dissipate by 36 hours when it becomes absorbed by a broader surface trough farther west associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Julia's fast westward motion has continued, but it's reaching the western end of the subtropical ridge and should turn toward the west-northwest and slow down a bit over the next 24 hours. The NHC track forecast lies on the northern side of the model trackers and closely follows the raw wind and pressure fields from the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models, moving Julia very close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala before dissipation. Most of the model trackers are not valid in this case since they are attached to the aforementioned broader area of vorticity to the west and not Julia itself. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific waters as a tropical storm through early Monday near the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Tropical-force-winds are also possible on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America tonight and Monday. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 12.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE NIC. COAST 12H 10/0600Z 12.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/1800Z 13.6N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg