000
WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132022
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
 
Lester's appearance has remained nearly the same since early this 
morning. The cyclone continues to battle moderate 
east-northeasterly shear of about 15-20 kt, which is causing the 
center to remain near, or just east of, its associated deep 
convection. An 1548 UTC ASCAT overpass showed peak wind vectors of 
32 kt. Therefore, the advisory intensity is being held at 35 kt. 
 
The storm is now moving a little faster to the northwest, or 310/10 
kt. Lester should continue to move in this direction for the next 
couple of days as the cyclone is steered within the flow between a 
cyclonic gyre to its west and a ridge over Texas. The latest NHC 
forecast track was nudged slightly to the east following the recent 
shift in the guidance. Due to the combination of the slight eastward 
track adjustment and ASCAT verification of tropical-storm-force 
winds about 70 n mi northeast of the center, the Government of 
Mexico expanded the Tropical Storm Warning eastward to Puerto 
Escondido. Based on the latest forecast track, the center of Lester 
should reach the coastline of Mexico by Saturday afternoon or 
evening.
 
Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high 
atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius, 
the shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist 
through landfall. Therefore, only gradual intensification is 
expected during that time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly 
weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is 
forecast to dissipate by Sunday. Because Lester was not able to take 
advantage of the time it had over water today to strengthen, the 
latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the 
previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern 
Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity 
Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This 
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible 
mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm 
Warning area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 14.3N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 15.1N  98.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 16.6N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.1N 101.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto