000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
 
Georgette continues to hang on to tropical cyclone status.  Small 
bursts of convection persist to the southwest of the partially 
exposed low-level center.  Since the convective organization has not 
changed, the initial intensity remains at 30 kts, slightly below the 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.  Moderate 
northeasterly to northerly shear is expected over the next few days. 
This vertical wind shear combined with the drier surrounding 
environment and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures are 
likely to cause Georgette to become a remnant low in a day or two.  
There were no updates to the intensity forecast this cycle.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 6 kt into the 
weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by Post-Tropical Cyclone 
Frank.  Within about a day, the low-level ridge should begin 
building back and turn Georgette westward as well as increase its 
forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous track prediction and close to the various consensus model 
aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 16.1N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 17.6N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 17.9N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1200Z 17.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg