000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021435 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Convection has continued to pulse near Georgette's circulation over the past 12 to 24 hours, but there has been little, if any, organization to the thunderstorm activity during that time. In fact, the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) provided its last Dvorak T1.0 on the system at 1800 UTC yesterday, indicating the lack of organization since that time. The initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data that showed peak winds just above 25 kt. Given the lack of organization it now appears more likely that Georgette will succumb to the marginal environment that is embedded within. Moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs cooling to around 26C along the forecast track, and dry mid-level humidity is expected to result in additional weakening and degeneration of the system to a remnant low within the next day or two. This could occur as soon as later today, if organized deep convection does not return. Georgette has made its much anticipated northeastward turn, with the latest motion estimated at 040/6 kt. Low- to mid-level southwesterly flow to the south of Frank should continue to steer Georgette northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, a low-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which will cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the previous forecast to be in better agreement with the latest track model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.1N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown