000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020236
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
 
Small bursts of convection continue to develop near the exposed 
low-level center of Georgette this evening.  Subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS still 
estimate winds of 30-33 kt in this system, and the initial 
intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory.  Global 
models predict the moderate northeasterly to east-northeasterly 
vertical wind shear should persist over Georgette for the next few 
days.  This and the relatively dry environment around the depression 
should prevent any future restrengthening.  The NHC intensity 
forecast still predicts Georgette to become a post-tropical cyclone 
in a few days, however given the poor organization of the 
convection, this could happen sooner.

Georgette has been meandering west-northwestward at 4 kt.  The 
system is expected to turn north-northeastward overnight into a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge located to the north of the 
cyclone.  In about two days, the ridge is expected to build back in 
and turn Georgette to the west with an increase in forward speed. 
The official track forecast is shifted slightly west of the previous 
advisory prediction, mostly due to the westward shift in the initial 
position.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 13.5N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 14.1N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 16.8N 130.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 17.1N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 17.0N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 16.3N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg