926 WTPZ43 KNHC 012033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Georgette is a poorly organized tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery is revealing that the low-level circulation is not well-defined, and deep convection continues to sputter. Unfortunately, there is no new satellite wind data over the system this afternoon to provide a better assessment of the low-level wind field of the depression. The initial intensity is being kept at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. However, this may be generous. The depression has been drifting north-northwest at about 4 kt today toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and this motion should continue through Tuesday night. The ridge is forecast to strengthen by Thursday, which should cause Georgette to turn westward along with an increase in forward speed. Models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks were made to the NHC track forecast for this advisory. Moderate east-northeasterly shear and a dry airmass should prevent Georgette from strengthening for the next several days. In a couple of days the cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters and encounter a more stable airmass. The combination of these factors should cause Georgette to degenerate into a remnant low. However, there is a possibility that the system could dissipate before that time. There was no change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.0N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 14.8N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.8N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 16.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto