000
WTPZ43 KNHC 010235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
 
Almost all deep convection has collapsed near the center of
Georgette.  Last-light visible imagery showed an exposed low-level
circulation and satellite water vapor imagery indicates the
presence of dry air near the inner core of the storm.  Subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range between 35-25 
kt.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt to represent a blend 
of the classifications.

Georgette is drifting westward at 3 kt, to the south of a weak 
mid-level ridge.  The tropical depression is expected to turn 
northward at a break in the ridge, though models disagree on the 
timing of the turn and this has created a large spread amongst the 
track guidance.  However, most models do show the ridge 
restrengthening by mid-week and steering Georgette westward to 
west-southward through the end of the forecast period.  The official 
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track prediction 
and closest to the model consensus aid, TVCE.

Moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear caused by the 
outflow from Frank is expected to continue over Georgette for the 
next couple of days.  This combined with the dry mid-tropospheric 
relative humidities around the cyclone will likely prevent 
Georgette from restrengthening.  The NHC intensity forecast shows 
Georgette maintaining tropical depression strength until day 4, when 
it is predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low.  Though, if 
deep convection does not reform near the center, this could happen 
even sooner.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 12.7N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 12.9N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.3N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 14.0N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 14.8N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 15.5N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 16.0N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 15.8N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 15.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven